Economic Policy Making in Mexico

Foreword xiii

Preface xv

Acknowledgments xvii

I. Historical Trends and Sources of Growth 1

Introduction 3

1. An Overview of the Mexican Economy 5

2. Mechanisms of Mexican Economic Growth 28

3. External Sources of Instability 38

II. Economic Policymaking, 1971–82 53

4. Policymaking during the Echeverría Administration, 1971–76 57

5. Policymaking in the Early López Portillo Years: Devaluation and Stabilization 69

6. Industrial Policy under López Portillo 84

7. Fiscal Policy under López Portillo: Prelude to the 1982 Crisis 95

8. Policymaking in López Portillo's Final Year: The 1982 Devaluations and Aftermath 111

III. Empirical Examinations of Policy Impact 123

Introduction 125

9. Scope for Anti-Inflationary Policy 127

10. Dynamics of the Fiscal System 150

11. Macroeconomic Controversies: The Monetarist-Cambridge Interpretations of the Policy Environment 164

12. Impact of Fiscal Policy: A Critique of the Fitzgerald Thesis 179

IV. Scope for Optimal Policymaking 203

Introduction 205

13. Optimal Stabilization Programs, 1975–81 207

14. Scope for Optimal Policy in an Oil-Based Economy, 1982–87 235

15. Optimal IMF-Type Stabilization Programs during the de la Madrid Presidency, 1983–87 260

16. The Policymaking Dilemma 276

Notes 283

Bibliography 297

Index 307